『双语』美专家：海地地震本不可预报

英文版（路透社）

中文版

The catastrophic earthquake that struck Haiti could not have been predicted, experts said , but seismologists have made progress in identifying areas likely to be hit by major quakes in the next few decades.

地震专家表示：袭击海地的灾难性地震本就无法预报，但地震学家们对未来几十年可能遭到强烈地震袭击的地区划定，已有进展。

Geologists have long been aware that a major earthquake could rock the fault line that runs through the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince. The hard part was figuring out when.

地质学家们早就已经察觉一场强震可能会袭击横跨海地首都太子湾的断层线。但问题是预测具体的时间。

U.S. geologists presented a paper in 2008 concluding that Port-au-Prince, which had not been hit by a major seismic event since 1751, could face a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. But they could not say if that quake would come the next day or in 30 years.

2008年美国地质学家们在一篇发布的论文中就预言自1751年就没再发生过重大地震的太子湾将会遭到一场7.2级强震的袭击，但他们也没法说出是会发生在明天还是30年以后。

“Where we are getting better is earthquake forecasting, where scientists are able to recognize what areas are likely to have a big earthquake sometime in the next several decades,” Stuart Sipkin, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told Reuters.

“在地震预测方面，我们有所进步的部分是科学家们已经可以辨识出哪些地区比较可能在未来几十年中爆发重大地震。”美国地质研究所的地质学家Stuart Sipkin如是说。

That forecasting is done by measuring the amount of stress built up in a particular fault, then extrapolating how much energy could ultimately be released. Even then, the earthquake could strike at any number of points along a fault line, and evacuating people from one area ahead of a quake could put them into harm’s way.

这种预测是通过测量特点断层上的遭受的压强，然后推断出可能会释放多少能量来做出的。但一条断层线上每个点都有可能遭到地震的袭击，在某次地震之前提前疏散某个地区的人群可能反而会让他们进入震区。